“A favorable outcome for Ripple could result in XRP gains of 100% or more,” McMillan said. “This would be a clear sign that the SEC views XRP as a security and that Ripple Labs is in violation of securities laws.”
McMillan warned, however, that an unfavorable ruling could have the opposite effect, sending the XRP price tumbling and “causing a ripple (no pun intended) through the alt-coin market.”
“A unfavorable outcome for Ripple could result in XRP losses of 100% or more,” McMillan said. “This would be a clear sign that the SEC views XRP as a security and that Ripple Labs is in violation of securities laws.”
“An unfavorable ruling from the SEC could see XRP retesting the $0.30 range or lower,” he told Blockworks in an email. “However, a favorable outcome for Ripple could easily see XRP gain 100%-plus.”
XRP’s price was about $0.54, as of 1:00 p.m. ET — up 7.5% in the last 24 hours and roughly 15% higher than seven days ago.
The latest rally in the token’s price likely reflects the potential that Ripple will win the case outright, or that the court decides the case must go to trial, according to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at fund manager VanEck.
“Algo traders may interpret such headlines on the tape as positive, but the truth will be in the details,” Sigel said. “Either way, I would speculate that a Ripple ‘win’ in this case might move the price of XRP between 15 to 30% in either direction, with a [rough estimate] of 25% being my best guess.”